Bailey, D. H., Duncan, G. J., Watts, T., Clements, D., & Sarama, J. (2018). Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill developmentAmerican Psychologist, 73(1), 81-94. NIHMSID: NIHMS861521

Chaparro, J., A. Sojourner & N. Huey. (forthcoming). Differential effects from access to high-quality early care. In Sustaining Early Childhood Learning Gains. Editors: A. Reynolds & J. Temple. Cambridge Univ Press: Cambridge, U.K.

Hanselman, Paul (forthcoming). Do School Learning Opportunities Compound or Compensate for Background Inequalities? Evidence from the Case of Assignment to Effective TeachersSociology of Education.

Jenkins, J., Watts, T., Magnuson, K., Gershoff, E., Clements, D. & Sarama, J. Do High-Quality Kindergarten and First-Grade Classrooms Mitigate Preschool Fadeout? Taylor&Francis Online

Petre, M. (forthcoming) Are Employers Omniscent? Employer Learning About Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills. Industrial Relations

Watts, T. W., Duncan, G. J., & Quan, H. (forthcoming).  Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: A conceptual replication investigating links between early gratification delay and later outcomes. Psychological Science. NIHMSID 940849 


Bailey, D. H., Duncan, G., Odgers, C., & Yu, W. (2017). Persistence and fadeout in the impacts of child and adolescent interventions Persistence and fadeout in the impacts of child and adolescent interventions Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness,10, 7-39. NIHMSID: NIHMS915845

Burchinal, M. (2017). Measuring Early Care and Education Quality. Child Development Perspectives. DOI: 10.1111/cdep.12260

Hanselman, P. and Fiel, J. (2017). School Opportunity Hoarding? Racial Segregation and Access to High Growth SchoolsSocial Forces. doi: 10.1093/sf/sow088

Duncan, G.J., Magnuson, K. & Vortuba-Drzal, E. (2017). Moving beyond correlations in assessing the consequences of poverty. Annual Review of Psychology 68(1), 413-434. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-010416-044224.

Duncan, R. J., Washburn, I. J., Lewis, K. M., Bavarian, N., DuBois, D. L., Acock, A. C., … Flay, B. R. (2017). Can universal SEL programs benefit universally? Effects of the Positive Action program on multiple trajectories of social-emotional and misconduct behaviors. Prevention Science 18, 214-224 doi: 10.1007/s11121-016-0745-1

Duncan, R.J., Schmitt, S.A., Burke, M., McClelland, M.M. (2017). Combining a kindergarten readiness summer program with a self-regulation intervention improves school readiness. Early Childhood Research Quarterly 42 (2018) 291-300. NIHMSID #926916

Jenkins, J. & Duncan, G. (2017)  Do Pre-Kindergarten Curricula Matter? In: The Current State of Scientific Knowledge on Pre-Kindergarten Effects

Miller, E. (2017)  Spanish instruction in head start and dual language learners’ academic achievement.  Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology.

Schenke, K., Nguyen, T., Watts, T.W., Sarama, J., Clements, D. H., (2017).  Differential Effects of the Classroom on African American and Non-African American’s Mathematics Achievement. Journal of Educational Psychology. NIHMS841034

Watts, T. W., Duncan, G. J., Clements, D. H., Sarama, J., Wolfe, C. B., & Spitler, M. E. (2017). What is the long-run impact of learning mathematics during preschool?  Child Development


Bailey, D. H. & Littlefield, A. K. (2016). Does reading cause later intelligence? Accounting for stability in models of changeChild Development. doi: 10.1111/cdev.12669

Bailey, D. H., Nguyen, T., Jenkins, J. M., Domina, T., Clements, D. H., & Sarama, J. S. (2016). Fadeout in an early mathematics intervention: Constraining content or pre-existing differences? Developmental Psychology, 52, 1457-1469.

Duncan, G.J., Magnuson, K.,& Murnane, R. (2016). Reforming Preschools and Schools American Pediatrics. 2016;16:S121–S127

Domina, T., Penner, A.M. & Penner, E.K. (2016). ‘Membership Has Its Privileges’: Status Incentives and Categorical Inequality in Education. Sociological Science 3: 264-295. DOI:10.15195/v3.a13

Engel, M., Claessens, A., Watts, T. W., & Farkas, G (2016). Mathematics content coverage and student learning in kindergarten. Educational Researcher, 45(5), 293-300

Engel, M., Claessens, A., Watts, T. W., & Stone, S. (2016). Socioeconomic inequality at school entry: A cross-cohort comparison of families and schools. Children and Youth Services Review.

Hanselman, P., Rozek, C., Grigg, J., & Borman, G. D. (2016) New Evidence on Self-affirmation Effects and Theorized Sources of Heterogeneity from Large-scale ReplicationsJournal of Educational Psychology doi: 10.1037/edu0000141

Jenkins, J. M., Farkas, G., Duncan, G. J., Burchinal, M., & Vandell, D. L. (2016). Head Start at Ages 3 and 4 Versus Head Start Followed by State Pre-K Which Is More Effective?. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 38(1), 88-112.

Magnuson, K., Duncan, G.J., Lee, Kenneth T.H., & Metzger, M. (forthcoming). Early Elementary School Adjustment and Educational Attainment.  American Education Research Journal 53(4), 1198-1228.

Magnuson, K. A., Kelchen, R., Duncan, G. J., Schinder, H. S., Shager, H. & Yoshikawa, H. (2016). Do the effects of early childhood education programs differ by gender? A meta-analysis. Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 36, 521-526. doi:10.1016/j.ecresq.2015.12.021

Miller, E. B. (2016) Child Care Enrollment Decisions Among Dual Language Learner Families: The Role of Spanish Language Instruction in the Child Care SettingEarly Childhood Research Quarterly, 36, 223-232.

Nguyen, T., Watts, T.W., Duncan, G.J., Clements, D.H., Sarama, J.S., Wolfe, C. & Spitler, M.E. (2016) Which preschool mathematics competencies are most predictive of fifth grade achievement? Early Childhood Research Quarterly 36 (2016) 550-560.

Penner, E.K. (2016). Early parenting and the reduction of educational inequality in childhood and adolescence. The Journal of Educational Research. DOI: 10.1080/00220671.2016.1246407.

Penner, E.K. (2016). Teaching for All? Teach For America’s Effects Across the Distribution of Student Achievement, Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, DOI:10.1080/19345747.2016.1164779

Simzar, R., Domina, T., & Tran, C. (2016). Eighth-grade Algebra course placement and student motivation for mathematics.  AERA Open, 2(1), 1-26. PubMed PMCID: PMC4772168

Watts, T. W., Clements, D. H., Sarama, J., Wolfe, C. B., Spitler, M. E., & Bailey, D. H. (2016). Does Early Mathematics Intervention Change the Processes Underlying Children s Learning Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness.


Bitler, M., Domina, T., Penner, E., & Hoynes, H. (in press). Distributional Analysis in Educational Evaluation: A Case Study from the New York City Voucher Program. Journal for Research on Educational Effectiveness. DOI 10.1080/19345747.2014.921259 PMCID: PMC 4507830

Burchinal, M., Xue, Y., Auger, A., Tien, H-C., Mashburn, A., Peisner-Feinberg, E.,  Zaslow, M., & Tarullo, T. Testing for quality thresholds and features. (forthcoming). In M. Burchinal, M. Zaslow, & L. Tarullo (Eds). Quality thresholds, features and dosage in early care and education: Secondary data analyses of child outcomes. Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development.

Burchinal, M., Xue, Y., Auger, A., Hsiao-Chuan, T., Mashburn, A., Zaslow, M., & Tarullo, T. Methodology of the Literature Review. (forthcoming). In M. Burchinal, M. Zaslow, & L. Tarullo (Eds). Quality thresholds, features and dosage in early care and education: Secondary data analyses of child outcomes. Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development.

Carpenter, C., Bruckner, T. A., Domina, T., Gerlinger, J. & Wakefield, S.(2015). State Education Standards for Tobacco Prevention and Classroom Instruction. Health Behavior and Policy Review (2015) 5(Sep 2015): 352-361. Also: University of California, Irvine. Retrieved from

Carpenter, C.S., Bruckner T.A., Domina T., Gerlinger J, Wakefield S. (2015) State Education Standards for Tobacco Prevention and Classroom InstructionHealth Behavior and Policy Review 2015; 5: 352-361. DOI:

Jenkins J.M., Farkas, G., Duncan, G.J., Burchinal, M., Vandell, D.L. (2015). Head Start at ages 3 and 4 versus Head Start followed by state pre-k: Which is more effective? Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. doi: 10.3102/0162373715587965 NIHMSID: 747700

Lam, A.C., Schenke, K.S., Ruzek, E.R., Conley, A.M., & Karabenick, S.A. (2015). Student perceptions of classroom achievement goal structure: Is it appropriate to aggregate? Journal of Educational Psychology. Online March, 2015.

Miller, E. B., Farkas, G., & Duncan, G. J. (2015) Does Head Start differentially benefit children with risks targeted by the program’s service model? Early Childhood Research Quarterly 34 (2016) 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.ecresq.2015.08.001. PMCID: PMC4563874

Odgers, CL. (2015) Income inequality and the developing child: Is it all relative? American Psychologist, 70, 722-31.

Penner, A., Domina, T., Penner, E., & Conley, A. (2015).  Curricular policy as a collective effects problem: A distributional approach. Social Science Research, 52, 627-641. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.03.008. PMCID: PMC4457374

Simzar, R., Martinez, M., Rutherford, T., Domina, T., Conley, A. M. (2015). Raising the stakes: How students’ motivation for mathematics associates with high-and low-stakes test achievement. Learning and Individual Differences, 39, 49–63.

Watts, T. W., Duncan, G. J., Chen, M., Claessens, A., Davis-Kean, P. E., Duckworth, K., Engel, M., Siegler, R. S., & Susperreguy, M. I. (2015). The role of mediators in the development of longitudinal mathematics achievement associations. Child Development 86(6), 1892-907. doi: 10.1111/cdev.12416. NIHMSID 749508

Xue, Y., Miller, E. B., Auger, A., Yi, P., Burchinal, M., Hsiao-Chuan, T., …Tarullo, L. (forthcoming). Testing for dosage-outcome relationships. In M. Burchinal, M. Zaslow, & L. Tarullo (Eds.), Quality thresholds, features and dosage in early care and education: Secondary data analyses of child outcomes (pp. 62-71). Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development.


Auger, A., Farkas, G., Duncan, G. J., Burchinal, M., & Vandell, D. L. (2014). Preschool Center Care Quality Effects on Academic Achievement: An Instrumental Variables Analysis Developmental Psychology, 50(12), 2559-2571.

Bailey, D. H., Watts, T. W., Littlefield, A. K., & Geary, D. C. (2014). State and trait effects on individual differences in children’s mathematical development. Psychological Science, 25(11), 2017-2026. doi: 10.1177/0956797614547539 PubMed PMID: 25231900; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4292922

Bruckner, T., Domina, T., Hwang, J., Gerlinger, J., Carpenter, C., & Wakefield, S. (2014). State-Level Education Standards for Substance Use Prevention Programs in Schools: A Systematic Content Analysis Journal of Adolescent Health. 2014 Apr;54(4):467-73. PubMed PMID: 24016749;PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3947729

Domina, T., Penner, A., Penner, E., & Conley, A. (2014). Algebra for All: California’s 8th Grade Algebra Initiative as Constrained Curricula. Teacher’s College Record, 116(8), 1–32. PMCID: PMC4479347

Bitler, M., Domina, T., Penner, A., & Penner, E. (2014). Quantile regression. In D. Brewer, & L. Picus (Eds.), Encyclopedia of education economics & finance. (pp. 592-595). Thousand Oaks,, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi: 10.4135/9781483346595.n222

Greenfader, C.M. & Miller, E.B. (2014). The Role of Access to Head Start and Quality Ratings for Spanish-Speaking Dual Language Learners’ (DLLs) Participation in Early Childhood EducationEarly Childhood Research Quarterly, 29(3), 378-388. doi:10.1016/j.ecresq.2014.04.011 PubMed PMID: 25018585; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4088314.

Miller, E.B., Farkas, G., Vandell, D.L. & Duncan, G.J. (2014). Do The Effects of Head Start Vary by Parental Preacademic Stimulation? Child Development, 85(4), 1385-1400. doi:10.1111/cdev.12233. PubMed PMID: 24597729; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4107068.

Watts, T. W., Duncan, G. J., Siegler, R. S., & Davis-Kean, P. E. (2014). What’s past is prologue: Relations between early mathematics knowledge and high school achievement. Educational Researcher, 43(7), 352-360.doi:10.3102/0013189X14553660 NIHMSID 734947


Bruckner, T. A., Domina, T., Hwang, J. K., Gerlinger, J., Carpenter, C., & Wakefield, S. (2013). State Education Standards for Tobacco Prevention and Classroom Instruction. Health Behavior and Policy Review, 2(5), 352–361. doi: 10.14485/HBPR.2.5.3

Carpenter, C., Domina, T., Wakefield, S., & Bruckner, T. A. (2013). State Education Standards for Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drugs, Version 1. University of California, Irvine. Retrieved from

Duncan, G. J. & Sojourner, A. (2013).  Can Intensive Early Childhood Intervention Programs Eliminate Income-Based Cognitive and Achievement Gaps? Journal of Human Resources, 2013 Mar 1;48(4):945-968. PubMed PMID: 25620809; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4302948.

Duncan, G. J. & Magnuson, K. (2013).  Investing In Preschool Programs and Duncan Magnuson JEP appendix Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2013 Spring;27(2):109-132. PubMed PMID: 25663745; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC4318654.

Keys, T.D., Duncan, G.J., Burchinal, M., Farkas, G., & Vandell, D. (2013). Preschool Center Quality and School Readiness: Quality Effects and Variation by Demographic and Child Characteristics Child Development, Volume 84, Number 4, 2013, 1171-1190. DOI: 10.1111/cdev.12048

Ruzek, E., Burchinal, M., Farkas, G. & Duncan, G.J. (2013). The Quality of Toddler Child Care and Cognitive Skills at 24 Months: Propensity Score Analysis Results from the ECLS-B. Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 2014 Jan 1;28(1)PubMed PMID: 24347815; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3857730.


Li, W., Farkas, G., Duncan, G.J., Burchinal, M.R. & Vandell, D.L. (2012). Timing of High-Quality Child Care and Cognitive, Language, and Preacademic Development. Developmental Psychology. Volume 49, Number 8, 2013, pp. 1440-1454. doi: 10.1037/a0030613


Working Papers In Progress:

Auger, A. (under review) Families and Early Childhood Education: The impact of participation and demographic predictors of additional service utilization?

Auger, A. (under review) Two-generation programs and parenting practices: The effect of services and supports on the home environment

Bitler, M., Corcoran, S., Domina, T. & Penner, E. Teacher Effects on Student Achievement and Height: A Cautionary Tale. Available upon request from first author

Bitler, M. & Monnet, J. The effects of the income and local labor markets shocks on test scores: Evidence from the NAEP. Unpublished Manuscript. Irvine Network on Interventions in Development, University of California, Irvine, United States.

Carpenter, C., Bruckner T.A., Domina, T., Gerlinger, J., & Wakefield, S. (revise and resubmit) Effects of State Education Requirements for Substance Use Prevention. Health Economics

Carpenter, C. The Adoption, Diffusion, and Content of Education-Based ATOD Policies: 1970-2010

Chaparro, J., Sojourner, A., Duncan, G.J.  Early Production of Cognitive Skill: Evidence from Randomly-Assigned Childcare Prices and Prenatal Investments

Chaparro, J., Sojourner, A. Same Program, Different Outcomes: Understanding Differential Effects from Access to Free, High-Quality Early Care

Chaparro, J, A. Sojourner & M. Wiswall. Child care and the Development of Early Childhood Skills: The value of combining Models and Experiments

Domina, T., Penner, A., Penner, E. Solve for X: Middle School Mathematics in the Algebra for All Era.

Duncan, G.J., Jenkins, J.M., Auger, A., Bitler, M., Domina, T., Burchinal, M. “Boosting school readiness: Should preschools target skills or the whole child?” (Revise and Resubmit, Economics of Education Review)

Duncan, G.J., Jenkins, J.M., Bailey, D.H. “The long and short of preschool education effectiveness” (Revise and Resubmit, Child Development Perspectives)

Duncan, G.J.; Lee, K.T.H.; Rosales-Rueda, M.; Kalil, A. (revise and resubmit); Maternal Age and Child Achievement.

Duncan, G. & Vandell, D.: Understanding Variation in the Impacts of Human Capital Interventions on Children and Youth. DuncanVandell.treatmentheterogeneityMar2012 (pdf)

Duncan, R. J., Nguyen, T., Miao, A., McClelland, M. M., & Bailey, D. (revise and resubmit) Longitudinal associations between executive function and mathematics in early childhood.

Duncan, R. J., Schmitt, S. A., McClelland, M. M., & Burke, M. Promoting school readiness by integrating a self-regulation intervention into a summer booster program.

Duckworth, K., Duncan, G.J., Bergman, L., Kokko, K., Lyyra, A., Metzger, M. & Simonton, S. The relative importance of adolescent skills and behaviors for adult earnings: a cross-national study

Hanselman, P. and Fiel, J. (forthcoming). School Opportunity Hoarding? Racial Segregation and Access to High Growth Schools.

Jenkins, J.M., Sabol, T., Farkas, G. “Double-down or switch it up: Should low-income children stay in Head Start for two years or switch programs?” (Revise and Resubmit, Evaluation Review)

Jenkins, J.M., Watts, T., Magnuson, K., Gershoff, E., Clements, D., Sarama, J., Duncan, G.J. “Preventing preschool fadeout through instructional intervention in kindergarten and first grade” (Conditionally accepted, Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness)

Jenkins, J.M., Auger, A., Nguyen, T., Yu, W. “Distinctions without a difference? Preschool curricula and children’s development” (Revise and Resubmit, Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis)

Lee, K.T.H., Duncan, G.J. (under review) Peer Problems in Middle Childhood Predict Early Adult Obesity.

Lee, K.T., Lewis, R.W., Kataoka, S., Vandell, D.L., & Schenke, K. (revise & resubmit). Out-of-School Time and Problem Behaviors during Adolescence.

Nguyen, T., Impacts of Targeted and Global Preschool Curricula on Children’s School Readiness: A Meta-Analytic Review.

Nguyen, T., Jenkins, J.M., Auger, A. “Are content-specific curricula differentially effective in Head Start or state pre-k classrooms?” (Revise and Resubmit, AERA-Open) 

Penner, E. Teacher Quality and Teach for America’s Increasing Effectiveness over time. Manuscript submitted for publication.

Petre, M. (under review) Contemplating Confidence? Contributions of Non-Cognitive Skills to the Racial Wage Gap Throughout the Distribution.

Petre, M. and Venkat, P. (under review) Funding, Investment and Wealth Equalization Across Texas Public School Districts.

Pierce, K., Auger, A., & Vandell, D. L. (revise and resubmit) Associations between consistent structured activity participation and academic achievement in middle childhood: Narrowing the achievement gap?

Schulenberg, J.; Duncan G.J.; Jager, J.; Kokko, K.; Lyyra, A.; Metzger, M. (under review) The Association Between Cumulative Child and Adolescent Difficulties and Adult Functioning: Replication Across Studies From Finland, Sweden, UK, and US.

Vandell, D.L., Lee, K.T., Auger, A. & Pierce, K. (revise & resubmit). Cumulative and Differential Effects of Early Child Care and Organized Afterschool Activities on Adolescent Functioning.

Wakefield, S., Gerlinger, J., Domina, T., Bruckner T.A., & Carpenter, C. (under review). What Else Do Legislators Do? Policy Diffusion and Low-Visibility ATOD Educational Policies, 1970-2010.